The last five years, replayed
The same frozen rules the live record uses, run month by month from Oct 2021 to Sep 2026, with £50,000 on paper. Each month the code saw only the prices up to that month-end. Set against an S&P 500 tracker fund, the index itself and bank savings.
A year on average: Launchpad +11.0% · tracker +13.9% · index +12.5% · bank +3.2%. Counting no dividends at all, Launchpad ends at £73,902.
The account against the benchmarks
■ Trader Launchpad (with dividends) ■ S&P 500 tracker fund (dividends reinvested, 0.07% fee) ■ S&P 500 index (price only) ■ Bank savings (1-year fixed rate, Bank of England). Month-end values in pounds, starting £50,000 at the end of Sep 2021. Hover a month for the figures.
£10,000 fresh each year
| Year | Launchpad | Tracker | Index | Bank | Launchpad, price only |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (Sep–Dec) | +£24 | +£1,045 | +£1,009 | +£7 | +£15 |
| 2022 | +£1,478 | −£843 | −£985 | +£80 | +£1,169 |
| 2023 | +£663 | +£1,937 | +£1,767 | +£312 | +£310 |
| 2024 | +£3,397 | +£2,663 | +£2,512 | +£513 | +£3,240 |
| 2025 | +£24 | +£960 | +£842 | +£417 | −£233 |
| 2026 (Dec–Sep) | +£221 | +£1,465 | +£1,382 | +£283 | −£89 |
| Added up | +£5,807 | +£7,227 | +£6,527 | +£1,612 | +£4,412 |
£10,000 put in fresh at the start of each year (part years for the first and last), gain or loss by the end of it. Bold is the best of the four that year. The last column leaves out all dividends (its stocks' and the fund's).
£10,000 put in fresh at the start of each year (part years for the first and last), gain or loss by the end of it.
Every trade, open and closed (11) — tap to show
| Stock | Shape | Bought | Sold | Months | Share price | In pounds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEEAmeren | Bull flag | Nov 2025 | held | 10 | -4.8% | −£828 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2025 the scan found a bull flag on Ameren (AEE) with its level at $104.38, 2.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $104.38, with the stop at $90.14 (13.6% below). It is still held after 10 months, last at $99.38 (-4.8%, -0.35R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2025 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$104.38 Close at the signal$102.02 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.2.3% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.70% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.2.5% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtNov 2025 at $104.38 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$90.14 (13.6% risk) Put in£15,339 Now$99.38 (still held) Held10 months Share price-4.8% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-0.35R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£828 (-5.4%) Dividends received£431 | |||||||
| SOSouthern | Bull flag | Mar 2025 | held | 18 | -8.9% | −£1,566 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Feb 2025 the scan found a bull flag on Southern (SO) with its level at $91.03, 1.4% above the close. The price traded through it in Mar 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $91.03, with the stop at $79.11 (13.1% below). It is still held after 18 months, last at $82.89 (-8.9%, -0.68R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthFeb 2025 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$91.03 Close at the signal$89.79 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.4% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.70% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.5.1% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtMar 2025 at $91.03 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$79.11 (13.1% risk) Put in£13,501 Now$82.89 (still held) Held18 months Share price-8.9% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-0.68R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£1,566 (-11.6%) Dividends received£634 | |||||||
| ATOAtmos Energy | Inverse head & shoulders | Dec 2022 | Sep 2026 | 45 | +29.2% | +£1,894 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found an inverse head & shoulders on Atmos Energy (ATO) with its level at $121.08, 0.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $121.08, with the stop at $98.50 (18.6% below). It was sold in Sep 2026 at $156.44 (closed under the trend line) after 45 months: +29.2% on the share price, +1.57R. The signalShapeInverse head & shoulders Signal monthNov 2022 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$121.08 Close at the signal$120.20 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.0.7% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.67% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.6.0% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtDec 2022 at $121.08 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$98.50 (18.6% risk) Put in£11,407 SoldSep 2026 at $156.44 WhyClosed under the trend line Held45 months Share price+29.2% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.+1.57R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£1,894 (+16.6%) Dividends received£1,122 | |||||||
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises | Bull flag | Dec 2023 | Aug 2026 | 32 | +146.3% | +£14,376 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) with its level at $109.11, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $109.11, with the stop at $78.07 (28.5% below). It was sold in Aug 2026 at $268.74 (closed under the trend line) after 32 months: +146.3% on the share price, +5.14R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2023 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$109.11 Close at the signal$107.46 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.5% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.22.3% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★ ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling The tradeBoughtDec 2023 at $109.11 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$78.07 (28.5% risk) Put in£11,096 SoldAug 2026 at $268.74 WhyClosed under the trend line Held32 months Share price+146.3% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.+5.14R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£14,376 (+129.6%) Dividends received£723 | |||||||
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Apr 2025 | 41 | -27.7% | −£2,974 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) with its level at $17.09, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $17.09, with the stop at $12.36 (27.7% below). It was sold in Apr 2025 at $12.36 (stop hit) after 41 months: -27.7% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$17.09 Close at the signal$16.83 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.5% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.2.0% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $17.09 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$12.36 (27.7% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldApr 2025 at $12.36 WhyStop hit Held41 months Share price-27.7% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,974 (-28.9%) Dividends received£1,607 | |||||||
| GOOGAlphabet | Bull flag | Dec 2023 | Mar 2025 | 15 | +13.8% | +£1,207 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on Alphabet (GOOG) with its level at $137.35, 2.6% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $137.35, with the stop at $105.63 (23.1% below). It was sold in Mar 2025 at $156.23 (closed under the trend line) after 15 months: +13.8% on the share price, +0.60R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2023 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$137.35 Close at the signal$133.92 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.2.6% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.10.8% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★ ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2023 at $137.35 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$105.63 (23.1% risk) Put in£11,096 SoldMar 2025 at $156.23 WhyClosed under the trend line Held15 months Share price+13.8% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.+0.60R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£1,207 (+10.9%) Dividends received£63 | |||||||
| KOCoca-Cola | Bull flag | Dec 2022 | Oct 2023 | 10 | -16.2% | −£2,026 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found a bull flag on Coca-Cola (KO) with its level at $64.17, 0.9% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $64.17, with the stop at $53.78 (16.2% below). It was sold in Oct 2023 at $53.78 (stop hit) after 10 months: -16.2% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2022 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$64.17 Close at the signal$63.61 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.0.9% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.2.5% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★ ★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2022 at $64.17 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$53.78 (16.2% risk) Put in£11,407 SoldOct 2023 at $53.78 WhyStop hit Held10 months Share price-16.2% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,026 (-17.8%) Dividends received£237 | |||||||
| VLOValero Energy | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | May 2023 | 18 | +37.1% | +£4,696 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Valero Energy (VLO) with its level at $78.08, 1.0% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $78.08, with the stop at $52.35 (32.9% below). It was sold in May 2023 at $107.04 (closed under the trend line) after 18 months: +37.1% on the share price, +1.13R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$78.08 Close at the signal$77.33 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.0% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.7.6% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $78.08 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$52.35 (32.9% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldMay 2023 at $107.04 WhyClosed under the trend line Held18 months Share price+37.1% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.+1.13R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£4,696 (+45.7%) Dividends received£842 | |||||||
| MTBM&T Bank | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Dec 2022 | 13 | -2.9% | +£640 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on M&T Bank (MTB) with its level at $149.34, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $149.34, with the stop at $110.04 (26.3% below). It was sold in Dec 2022 at $145.06 (closed under the trend line) after 13 months: -2.9% on the share price, -0.11R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$149.34 Close at the signal$147.12 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.5% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.0.1% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $149.34 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$110.04 (26.3% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldDec 2022 at $145.06 WhyClosed under the trend line Held13 months Share price-2.9% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-0.11R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£640 (+6.2%) Dividends received£353 | |||||||
| VMRKVivmark Residential | Bull flag | Dec 2021 | Jun 2022 | 6 | -19.2% | −£1,095 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Vivmark Residential (VMRK) with its level at $86.40, 1.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $86.40, with the stop at $69.81 (19.2% below). It was sold in Jun 2022 at $69.81 (stop hit) after 6 months: -19.2% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2021 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$86.40 Close at the signal$85.31 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.1.3% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.8.5% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2021 at $86.40 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$69.81 (19.2% risk) Put in£9,937 SoldJun 2022 at $69.81 WhyStop hit Held6 months Share price-19.2% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£1,095 (-11.0%) Dividends received£153 | |||||||
| GEGE Aerospace | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Apr 2022 | 5 | -26.9% | −£2,334 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on GE Aerospace (GE) with its level at $67.09, 2.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $67.09, with the stop at $49.05 (26.9% below). It was sold in Apr 2022 at $49.05 (stop hit) after 5 months: -26.9% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)The ceiling the chart shape drew. A buy-stop order waits here: it only buys if the price rises through it.$67.09 Close at the signal$65.34 Close below the level byHow far under the ceiling the price closed. Only signals within 5% of it count.2.7% Detector confidenceHow cleanly the chart matches the shape, from 0 to 100%. Only 65% and above counts.85% Above its 10-month averageHow far the price sits above its average of the last 10 months. More than 25% counts as overstretched and is held back.1.5% StarsExtra good signs, such as a rising 10-month trend, volume drying up or an earnings beat. They only decide which signal gets a slot first.★★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $67.09 StopThe price at which a losing trade is sold. It is set the day the trade is bought, so the most it can lose is known in advance.$49.05 (26.9% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldApr 2022 at $49.05 WhyStop hit Held5 months Share price-26.9% In R (risk units)The result measured against what the trade risked (entry minus stop). +2R means it made twice what it risked; -1R means the stop was hit.-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,334 (-22.7%) Dividends received£15 | |||||||
9 closed trades, 5 made money in pounds; 2 still held. Click any trade for its chart and full breakdown. Returns are on the share price; the pounds column is after costs and the exchange rate, on the record's £50,000 account.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) with its level at $109.11, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $109.11, with the stop at $78.07 (28.5% below). It was sold in Aug 2026 at $268.74 (closed under the trend line) after 32 months: +146.3% on the share price, +5.14R.
The signal
★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Valero Energy (VLO) with its level at $78.08, 1.0% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $78.08, with the stop at $52.35 (32.9% below). It was sold in May 2023 at $107.04 (closed under the trend line) after 18 months: +37.1% on the share price, +1.13R.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found an inverse head & shoulders on Atmos Energy (ATO) with its level at $121.08, 0.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $121.08, with the stop at $98.50 (18.6% below). It was sold in Sep 2026 at $156.44 (closed under the trend line) after 45 months: +29.2% on the share price, +1.57R.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on Alphabet (GOOG) with its level at $137.35, 2.6% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $137.35, with the stop at $105.63 (23.1% below). It was sold in Mar 2025 at $156.23 (closed under the trend line) after 15 months: +13.8% on the share price, +0.60R.
The signal
★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on M&T Bank (MTB) with its level at $149.34, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $149.34, with the stop at $110.04 (26.3% below). It was sold in Dec 2022 at $145.06 (closed under the trend line) after 13 months: -2.9% on the share price, -0.11R.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Oct 2025 the scan found a bull flag on Ameren (AEE) with its level at $104.38, 2.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $104.38, with the stop at $90.14 (13.6% below). It is still held after 10 months, last at $99.38 (-4.8%, -0.35R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ⚠ Utility
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Nov 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Vivmark Residential (VMRK) with its level at $86.40, 1.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $86.40, with the stop at $69.81 (19.2% below). It was sold in Jun 2022 at $69.81 (stop hit) after 6 months: -19.2% on the share price, -1.00R.
The signal
★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Feb 2025 the scan found a bull flag on Southern (SO) with its level at $91.03, 1.4% above the close. The price traded through it in Mar 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $91.03, with the stop at $79.11 (13.1% below). It is still held after 18 months, last at $82.89 (-8.9%, -0.68R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found a bull flag on Coca-Cola (KO) with its level at $64.17, 0.9% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $64.17, with the stop at $53.78 (16.2% below). It was sold in Oct 2023 at $53.78 (stop hit) after 10 months: -16.2% on the share price, -1.00R.
The signal
★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on GE Aerospace (GE) with its level at $67.09, 2.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $67.09, with the stop at $49.05 (26.9% below). It was sold in Apr 2022 at $49.05 (stop hit) after 5 months: -26.9% on the share price, -1.00R.
The signal
★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat
The trade
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: where it was bought (blue dot) and sold (gold dot), the level (buy-stop), the stop and, while still held, the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · shaded: while held.
At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) with its level at $17.09, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $17.09, with the stop at $12.36 (27.7% below). It was sold in Apr 2025 at $12.36 (stop hit) after 41 months: -27.7% on the share price, -1.00R.
The signal
★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling
The trade
Best to worst, in pounds after costs on the record's £50,000 account. Tap a trade for its chart and full breakdown.
Orders for next month (end of Sep 2026)
No buy-stop orders for next month: next month is outside the November–April window.
Shapes found at the end of Sep 2026
| Stock | Shape | Level | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKDuke Energy | Cup & handle | $117.05 | Held back |
| VZVerizon Communications | Cup & handle | $46.19 | Held back |
Read this before trusting it
- Five years is a short window, and these five were tough for this strategy. Over 20 years of tests it averaged about 12–13% a year against about 9% for the index (prices only), but it fell behind in plenty of single years, and most of its lead came from a few strong ones. This replay shows one of the weaker stretches honestly.
- Few trades. With trades only bought November to April, and only when the market banner is on, it took 11 trades in five years. Winners are held for years, so a few stocks carried most of the account: on average about three-quarters of the money was in stocks and a quarter in the S&P 500 fund. One bad month in a big holding moves the whole line (August 2026: Royal Caribbean fell 16%).
- Today's S&P 500 list. The replay scans the companies in the index now, not the index as it stood each month, which flatters any backtest a little.
- It is a replay, not the record. The live record starts in October 2026 and is sealed every month with a fingerprint; this page is not, and it is rebuilt when the record moves on.
- Costs as in the tests: £3 a trade, a 0.5% spread and 0.1% to move money in and out of the fund. Pound figures use each month's dollar–pound rate. Bank savings use the Bank of England's 1-year fixed-rate average, re-fixed every 12 months.
A paper exercise, not advice. Past results, replayed or real, do not promise future ones.
◀ The live record❓ How it works
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Follow along on Instagram: @trader.launchpad · a post every month when the new list is out.
More: The Bank Savings yardstick · Past lists · Questions people ask
Simulated record: what the system would have done, timestamped and cost-adjusted. Not a projection, not advice.v12.1 (2026-10-24)